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Dow Hits New Highs as Wall Street Posts Weekly Gains
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new peak in a mixed session on Friday, wrapping up a winning week for Wall Street even as a US government shutdown looked set to continue into next week.
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Urvin Weekly -------------- Shut. Down. So, what?
Your weekend may just be getting started, but the Federal government clocked out early this week. A government shutdown began at midnight on Tuesday, when the Senate fell well short of reaching an agreement on the GOP’s spending bill. The biggest sticking point is the approaching expiration of Obamacare subsidies. As currently written, the spending bill would not renew these tax credits, which Senate Dems say would raise medical insurance premiums by as much as 75% for millions of Americans.Equities markets met news of the shutdown the same they meet everything these days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both climbed to new record highs on Wednesday. Investor appetites seemed relatively unfazed by government dysfunction. Perhaps Wall Street saw this coming? Markets did retreat slightly by the end of the week, but these are likely mere palpitations, as opposed to a full-blown panic attack. There’s a reason for the relative equanimity. There have been 21 prior government shutdowns in the last 50 years. On average, the S&P has traded relatively flat but with a slight probability of gains during these shutdowns. So clearly, this is no big deal.But wait. What about all the other economic stuff?Yeah, all the other stuff is pretty bad. For starters, tens of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed including 64% of National Park Service (NPS) employees, 80% of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) workers, 40% of Department of Human and Health Services (DHHS) employees, and 75% of personnel at the National Institutes of Health (NIH).More than 1 million people serving in the U.S. military will continue working without compensation. If you’re looking for a silver lining, the IRS will continue working through the shutdown. Here’s another fun wrinkle. After cutting interest rates last month, the Fed said more cuts were likely coming soon. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell is walking a tightrope between stubborn inflation and a bad job market. The timing and size of the next interest rate cuts will be critical. The Fed depends on crucial jobs and consumer spending data to make these decisions. Unfortunately, this data is provided by the federal government, and nobody’s picking up the phone over there. That’s really just a glimpse of what’s at stake. So what’s the big picture? We decided to turn to our new AI-powered chatbot to find out. While the S&P 500 may generally fare well during government shutdowns, the outlook is not as sunny for the rest of us.  According to AskUrv, “historical data reveals that previous shutdowns have led to measurable declines in economic output, often taking time to recover losses.” The long-term effects of a shutdown, says AskUrv, “depend on the duration and severity of the closure.”Historically, the average government shutdown has lasted 8 days. But as he is wont to do, President Trump set a new record in his first team with a 2019 shutdown that lasted 35 days. So, if we were gambling on the Over/Under…
Repost Of Washington Shutdown Blunts Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia, Europe Up
Alpha Testers Wanted - AI chatbot
🚨 We’re looking for a handful of Alpha testers for Urvin’s NEW (soon to be released) AI chatbot - AskUrv. If you want access NOW drop a comment and I’ll provide the link.
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