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Urvin Weekly -------------- It's getting hot in here ...

On July 4th, President Trump signed his $4.5 trillion tax bill into law. The spending bill provides massive tax benefits for the wealthiest 20% of Americans, makes permanent the corporate tax breaks initiated under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and adds a whole bunch of new business tax write-offs for things like equipment, construction, and R&D. 


Wall Street took the news in stride.



Trading ended on a high note as we rocketed into the holiday weekend. Then, on Monday, the president did what the president does. 



Trump began the week by delivering a series of tariff letters to 14 trade partners, all stamped with an August 1st deadline. 


When Trump last pulled this lever on April 2nd, the markets had a fairly unilateral reaction.



This time?



The markets cratered back in April. This time, there was a brief shudder as investors gave back last week’s final gains. 


And then…


Investors remembered the last time Trump threatened a bunch of countries with gargantuan tariffs and an immovable deadline. Kurt Reiman, head of fixed income for UBS Global Wealth Management, said “same threat, different goalpost.”


By Wednesday morning, it seemed as though the markets had fully digested and moved on from the threat of tariffs. 

The three major indices–the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq–all surged as the minutes from this month’s Federal Reserve Board meetings went public. Despite Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s ongoing concern about the inflationary potential of tariffs, it appears the Fed is still eyeing a possible interest rate cut in September. 

Meanwhile, the tech-powered Nasdaq index recorded its own all-time high on Wednesday as Nvidia became the first company to ever surpass $4 trillion in market cap. 


Against a backdrop of record-setting summer temperatures, U.S. equities markets seem poised to set more records before this season is over. 



What does that tell us?


It may be hotter than the Seventh Circle of Hell right now, but investors aren’t sweating tariffs… that hard. 



That said, it’s not clear that investors are terribly thrilled about all the uncertainty. 

“This opens the door for another round of ‘TACO Tuesday,’ Trump-style,” says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia  


To refresh your memory, TACO is an acronym that means “Trump Always Chickens Out”. The implication is that the president consistently backs away from his most dire trade threats over fear of prolonged market turmoil. 



Whether you believe this characterization, or you believe that Trump is simply using tariffs as a tactic for bringing trade partners to the negotiation table, the ultimate outcome for investors is volatility. To wit, by Thursday morning, the Nasdaq had retreated entirely from Wednesday’s fresh peak. 


Investors at every level are likely itching for the president to start cutting some actual trade deals. The president tells us that these deals are imminent. 


Depending on one’s definition of a trade deal, the president has so far reached agreements (or at least frameworks for agreements) with China, Vietnam, and the U.K. Rumor has it that talks with the E.U. have also been productive. This places the White House just shy of its April 2nd pledge–90 deals in 90 days. 



The president remains optimistic. 


Ultimately, says Trump, “We’re going to have much more than 90, but most of those are going to be sent a letter...We’re sending out letters to various countries, telling them how much tariffs they have to pay.”




It remains to be seen how many negotiating partners will be drawn in by the president’s letter writing campaign. But for now, the markets have largely adapted to a new Trump era philosophy: 



Or at least, tomorrow is unknowable for as long as we remain in this state of pre-negotiation. The truth is, neither investors nor everyday Americans have yet felt the impact of either the president’s new spending bill or his trade policy. 

Until then, the only thing we really know is that it’s hot out there. Be kind to your ice cream truck drivers. They’re doing God's work.



Urvin Weekly ----------- Newsletter 7 4 25

It’s already the 4th of July. Summer is flying by. So we’re taking a pause to celebrate the season.



Yup, we’re excited too. And we’re not about to waste these precious days indoors. So Let’s Talk Markets Live will be taking a short summer vacation.



Just kidding. We’re really going to miss you. This has been an amazing season of Let’s Talk Markets Live. Thanks to all of our awesome guests–new and old friends alike; and a huge thank you to everybody who tuned in. 


Thousands of you dropped by for our Livestream every week. You opened your minds. You opened your hearts. You gave us inspiration. 

All of this to say…




We’re already lining up all kinds of cool shows for our return in August. Until then, we are giving you one summer assignment. 


Have you created your Urvin.finance account?



We love sharing this newsletter with you every week. But we’d also love to hear from you. The Urvin platform makes that possible. Drop by and tell us how we’re doing, what we could be doing better, and what you’re up to during your summer break


One more assignment. Have a Happy 4th! And celebrate safely.



Until our return, you know where to find us.




IEX Options Exchange Application

IEX has filed for a new options exchange, and the usual suspects are out with the same exact arguments they used 10 years ago against the equities exchange. They were wrong then, and they're wrong now. I wrote a comment letter. Here are a few choice passages:




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